Adventures In Free Agency

By, Mike Mandlin

LeBron James and Chris Paul were superstars almost before they could grow chin hair. Receiving contract extensions for the maximum allowed under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, was a given. Josh Smith, as I wrote on Monday, is a little...flighty, but it was still no-brainer to invest in him long-term. It's not usually such an easy decision. In the case of Smith and Dwight Howard, their physical gifts are so extraordinary, elite among NBA players, that, barring injury, it's hard to imagine them not progressing enough to warrant big salaries. But most prospects have to match their athletic gifts with considerable skill development to be worth star money. And most haven't proven their mettle by the time they reach free-agency and ask for it. Teams are left to decide whether to make long-term commitments, for as much as a 6th of their team salary, to players who have yet to earn it on the court. Teams have to predict who's going to make The Leap to stardom. Making the wrong decision can screw up a team for years, typically by vastly overpaying for a bust. Since most teams have itchy trigger fingers, getting burned by letting future stars walk, is much less common. These decisions would be a difficult for any company to make, much less the inane legions who manage NBA teams.

Below, I've listed recent first-time free agents who got big dollars before putting up big numbers, guys who bought MTV-Cribs-mansions before wearing an all-star jersey.

Hooray Success! Gambles that Paid Off

Gilbert Arenas: 6 years $65 million - Arenas is awesome, and he's really good at basketball, too. In his last year in Golden State he seemed to be on the verge of superstardom, and he was. The Warriors knew it, but couldn't clear enough cap space to retain him.

Tony Parker: 6 years $66 million - I don't know if he'd be worth it if the NBA didn't have these bitch rules about perimeter contact. Parker went from being an outstanding penetrator to being virtually unstoppable, shooting more efficiently than any small guard since John Stockton (and now joined by Monta Ellis). Also, this is a situation where team context is very significant to Parker's dollar value. The Spurs were, and continue to be, in a uniquely advantageous position. Their three best players were all draft picks, so they got plenty of cheap mileage while they developed and then had their bird rights when it came time to sign them. Other teams would have had to clear a great deal of cap space just to sign Parker, while the Spurs were able to sign three of the best players in the NBA without difficulty.

Mehmet Okur: 6 years $50 million - Team context is everything here. Okur and Deron Williams are the only starter-quality perimeter threats the Jazz have had since John Stockton, seriously. In only three years, Deron Williams is 6th all-time in three-pointers made for the Jazz, making over 37%. Okur is ranked 5th at over 36% in his four years with the team. Andrei Kirilenko is the only other active player in the top ten (ranked 7th in 7 years with the Jazz) but he only shoots 31%. Okur is a very good player, but he's vastly more valuable to the Jazz than he would be to most other teams. The Jazz have $14 million a year tied up in AK, a wing who can't shoot, and $11 million in Carlos Boozer, a dominant power-forward who needs room to operate. Offering big money to a player who averaged 19 and 22 minutes in his first two seasons was ballsy, but Okur is the only starter-quality center in the game who shoots well from three-point range. The gamble paid off.

Joe Johnson: 5 years $70 million - This was surprising, surprising that Atlanta gave him that much and surprising that Johnson has much made good on the investment. He was coming off an exceptional year, with incredibly fluky shooting number-his three-point FG% improved by a staggering 17% over the previous season-but he was the fourth scoring option on the Suns, and Atlanta gave him a max contract, to be their franchise player. It was insane. That it worked doesn't make it less insane. But it worked. He's been their do-everything guy, on both sides of the ball, and turned into a hell of a crunch-time scorer too. Atlanta is too stupid to deserve such fortune.

Tyson Chandler: 6 years $63 million - I didn't like this deal. He was a very good defender and rebounder, but he didn't have a clue on offense and it didn't look like he ever would. He also had nagging back ailments in previous years, slowing him down considerably. The Bulls agreed with me and traded him to the Hornets for junk, and Chandler immediately made them regret it. His back is fine, defense progressed even further, rebounding maintained, and he finally developed a highly effective offensive maneuver: catching ally-oops from Chris Paul. Yeah, team context is pretty big here too. Chandler's in this category after only one year because there were no fluky elements to his success this year (unless you consider teaming with Chris Paul fluky) and he doesn't need to make any improvements to repeat the performance.

Flops (in no particular order)

Troy Murphy: 6 years $58 million - GM Chris Mullin's AA sponsor took his first vacation in five years and this is what happened. Murphy is a very good rebounder and shooter. Furthermore, he has an awesomely big, crooked nose. But Murphy, lacking superior athleticism, just didn't have the upside, and this was clear as day to everyone but the Warriors. Oh yeah, and he was coming off a year where he lost 54 games to injury.

Mike Dunleavy: 5 years $44 million - Another Mullin masterpiece. I really liked Dunleavy, coming out of college. Though not very quick or strong, he was a graceful 6'9" with guard skills. A good shooter, good ball-handler, good passer, and tough rebounder, I thought he was going to be terrific. But he wasn't great at anything, and his athletic liabilities turned out to be more serious than I expected, on the defensive end and the boards. After three years of mediocrity, the Warriors should have sucked it up and admitted defeat, but instead they signed him to this ludicrous deal. Six years into his career, he finally become a good enough shooter to make up for his athletic shortcomings, to some degree. Now he's only overpaid by about $4 million a year instead of $8 million.

Jamal Crawford: 7 years $56 million - When Isiah is sure of something, he's sure, like, 7-years sure. Crawford is an enigma. His offensive skills are awesome, but he consistently finds a way to suck. I once heard a good observation about Dominique Wilkins, that he wasn't selfish; he just felt his wild twisting off-balance shots were higher percentage opportunities than uncontested jumpers for his teammates. Crawford has the same mentality. Problem is, Crawford ain't Wilkins. Wilkins made 46% of his shots, including his decline; Crawford makes 40%. That's the difference between a Hall of Famer and this overpaid loose cannon. Thomas figured he could rein him in. He was wrong. Crawford hasn't progressed an iota since he signed this contract. At 4 years $32 million, this wouldn't be such a bad gamble, but the length of the contract has seriously impeded the the Knicks attempts to reshape their roster.

Eddie Curry: 6 years $60 million - Curry is fat. He was fat in high school, fat at draft camp, fat his rookie year, and fat all through the first four years of his career. Then Isiah Thomas traded away the Knicks future and signed Curry to this fat contract because Curry was suddenly going to become dedicated and put down the Twinkies? A lot of basketball people were seduced by his grace in the post, but , as I've written, His Fatness is a black hole and a turnover machine, largely, if not entirely, negating the value of his scoring abilities. The book on Curry was written by the time Thomas signed him, but he wasn't the only drinking the Kool Aid. Indeed, Curry had enough potential for me to console my nervous Knicks fan friends without feeling totally full of shit, and I think history would have let Thomas off the hook for the signing, if he hadn't given up three first-round draft picks for the privilege. You know, Chicago's conservative approach, refusing to sign Curry without a DNA test, and Thomas' utter dismissal of the issue, is so indicative of the two teams' style, and the results they've wrought. Paxson is guilty of only one awful signing, the Ben Wallace deal, but he also didn't have the balls or creativity to trade for Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, or Kevin Garnett, despite having the assets. Thomas on the other hand...well, he's creative, and has made many of the worst deals of the past decade.

Kenyon Martin: 7 years $90 million - Speaking of the worst deals of the past decade, I'd rather have Crawford's contract and Curry's, a sexual harassment lawsuit, and an owner who makes shitty music, than be on the hook for this puppy. It's really quite remarkable that Isiah Thomas never traded for Martin. This was simply one of the worst deals in NBA history. Denver actually traded away three first-round draft picks for the right to give a max contract to a power-forward who had no post game, never averaged eight rebounds a game, and who had an extensive injury history. Beyond that, Martin was five years older than His Fatness, lacked the allure of Curry's upside, and was nicknamed for a company that went bankrupt. K-Mart pounds his chest and screams a lot, but that's all the manliness you'll see from him on the court. Oh, he's a good defender, it's true, but certainly no stopper and he'd already lost a step, from his string of leg injuries, when they signed him. Martin, who takes up nearly a quarter of Denver's salary cap, loses even more karma points for stunting the growth of a team with Carmelo and AI, two of the most exciting players in the game. This was a disaster the Nets saw a mile away, and they later rewarded former Denver GM Kiki Vandeweghe for making the deal, by hiring him.

Nene Hillario: 6 years $60 million - The only reason this wasn't more stupid than Martin is that Hilario was younger and they didn't give up any draft picks to sign him. Simply enough, Hillario was a decent, but unexciting, young player for two years, then he missed 27 games with injury in his third season, and 81 games in his fourth season with a nasty knee injury: torn anterior cruciate ligament, sprained medial collateral ligament and torn meniscus. Before he got back on the court Denver signed him to this absurd contract. Now? Well, I'm not saying they should have predicted cancer...

Not Flops:

These guys came into in the league as good athletes with a lot to learn, and they learned it. They're of all-star quality, tough, playing through pain without complaint, nice guys, and they're still in their primes. And yet both players were shopped all over the league and finally traded for inferior talent, because they weren't quite good enough to justify the cap space they take up. That's the NBA. Any team would love to have these guys, but you can't build a team around them, and having them on your team at these rates makes it almost impossible to acquire the guys you do want to build around.

Richard Jefferson: 6 years $78 million - I discuss Jefferson at length, here

Jason Richardson: 6 years $70 million - If he could defend like Jefferson, Richardson wouldn't be in this category.

Jury's Out (too soon to tell)

Kirk Hinrich: 5 years $47.5 million - When I started typing "kirk hinr..." in the google bar in Firefox, the first auto-complete option offered was "Kirk Hinrich girlfriend." Huh? Is he boffing someone famous? Is there some scandal about Hinrich and a 14-year-old? I bit, pressed 'enter', and the first site that came up was, a "Discussion forum for Kirk Hinrich's girlfriend. Does Kirk Hinrich have a girlfriend? Is he dating someone? Is he married? Would you date him?" Unfortunately, these questions are legitimately more exciting than the results of the first year of his new big contract.

This contract is right on the rim between bust and too soon to tell. One thing in Hinrich's favor is that, atypically, he's getting the fat part of the contract up front. He made over $11 million last year, and his salary will decline each season, down to $8 million in the last year of his contract. Therefore, with steady play, Hinrich becomes more valuable (and tradeable) each year. Steady play, however, isn't Hinrich's strong point, at least not his outside shooting. In the last three years Hinrich shot 37%, 42%, and, most recently, 35% from three-point range. This fluctuation is of critical importance to Hinrich's game, because he doesn't penetrate well or shoot many free-throws. His offensive value is entirely dependant on his outside shooting and playmaking. He takes care of the ball and distributes well enough, but he's nothing special, in that regard. His value comes from outside shooting and his very good and versatile defense. When he's knocking down shots and defending diligently, he's good enough for the Not Flops category, and maybe Hooray Success! by his last two years. When his shot isn't falling, his contract is just crappy. Hinrich would benefit from a low post presence more than anyone else on the Bulls. He's a pure shooter, the kind that hits all day in practice, but he has a slow release and without penetration skills, he's always shooting under the duress of clingy defense. If Luol Deng or someone else on the Bulls can become a serious post threat, Hinrich might be OK after all.

Andre Biedrins: 6 years $63 million - In the last three years his FT% went from 30% to 52% to 62% last year. I'm a sucker for statistically valid indications of improvement, especially shooting improvement, for a guy who's earned his minutes with athleticism. Every summer you hear about how this or that guy worked on his jumper or got faster or stronger. Bidrins raised his FT% 32 points over three years; that's work. I think the downside of this deal is a very good big man without much more upside with the ball in his hands, or maybe he has plenty of upside left in him. This is a good bet, for the Warriors.

Chris Kaman: 5 years $52.5 million - Kaman was a lottery bust and this contract was lunacy. Then he suddenly became a force on the boards and strong third-option scorer, in the post. Who knew? Let's see if it holds up.

Andrew Bogut: 5 years $60 million with incentives to $70 million - I haven't seen him enough to have an opinion, but highly skilled big men without exceptional athleticism (see above) seem to have slow learning curves, so maybe he'll put it together.

Emeka Okafor: 6 years $72 million - I was skeptical at first, but now I'm on board with this. Okafor's an outstanding defender and rebounder, but his offense abilities might have already peaked, and they ain't all that. On a good team he's a fourth option scorer. However, I have a feeling that Larry Brown is going turn him into Ben Wallace, with some scoring ability. I'd never make this deal, but I still think it might work out.

Samuel Dalembert: 6 years $64 million - like Kaman, a bust who suddenly wasn't a bust. If he plays like he did this year through the length of the contract, he'll be a Not a Bust, at worst. Frankly, I think Elton Brand is going to light a fire under everyone's ass in Philly and make all their contracts look good. Unfortunately, this might convince someone to give Billy King another shot as GM, and that would be terrible.

Luol Deng: 6 years $80 million - At this point Deng is pretty much a super-sized Richard Hamilton. He moves very well without the ball, and with his long stride he's rarely more than a single dribble away from a mid-range shot he likes. He jumps very high and releases the ball high, so his shot is unblockable, and accurate. And as he doesn't dribble or pass much, Deng doesn't turn the ball over, making him pretty efficient for a guy who doesn't shoot threes or get to the line. Now, Hamilton isn't worth $13 million a year, but Deng plays defense too, and has the size and strength to become a post player. He signed this deal after a down year from nagging, but not serious, injuries, and the great Chicago Bulls malaise. He'll be fine. If he makes no further improvements he'll be an excellent but somewhat overpaid player, like Richard Jefferson, but he has the upside to make this a bargain.

Josh Smith: 5 years $58 million - like I said.

Sure, people make mistakes, and these first time free agent signings are tricky, but NBA teams make them trickier. Nene Hillario makes his money by being quicker than his opponent. Who on earth was going to pay him $10 million a year for six years, coming off a devastating knee injury? With whom did the Nuggets think they were competing for his services? What about Troy Murphy? And no one was going to offer Mike Dunleavy anything close to what Golden State did. Owners' pockets might be bottomless, but what I don't understand is paying way, way too much money when there isn't a great deal of competition for a player. There's no better example than Orlando's deal for Rashard Lewis last year. He's not on this list because he had long ago established his predictive value, but the contract is beyond absurd. I don't think anyone even had the cap room to make Lewis an offer within $20 million of Orlando's. And because the gods of the NBA enjoy irony as much as the next guy, Lewis wasn't even the best small-forward on the team this past year.

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